War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a sham, with major political parties dissolved, numerous figures jailed and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The military government is holding a staggered election nearly five years after it seized power in a takeover, which sparked widespread opposition and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Observers say the junta, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, association or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.

More than 200 people have been charged for interfering with or criticising the polls under a new law which carries severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, adding that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats asking people to shun the polls.

The army has been engaged on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but regained territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a huge operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three phases over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it challenging to forecast a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the authorities can adjust tactics if the results in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has urged negotiations to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not being held for the outside world," a military representative stated at a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "progress toward democracy".